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Military Withdrawals

As the U.S. and its partners reevaluate their military footprint in conflict zones as a result of isolationist political movements and preparations for great-power competition, policymakers are bracing for a series of partial and total military drawdowns around the world. 

In the wake of a disorderly and sudden withdrawal process from Afghanistan, this project will confront the important question of what a “responsible” withdrawal looks like; how can the U.S. and its partners mitigate risks for its local partners and communities while achieving their aims?

This portfolio explores the strategic, operational, and tactical elements of military withdrawal, assessing conflict zones’ security landscapes and identifying the “blind spots” that could jeopardize responsible withdrawal processes and create future power vacuums that challenge U.S. interests. The portfolio assesses how competing actors conduct partial and full military withdrawals in conflict zones and areas of competition, delivering in-depth assessments of the post-withdrawal security landscape and risks to both U.S. interests and local human security.

The portfolio includes several projects examining active conflict zones likely to experience a partial or full-scale withdrawal of foreign military forces, along with retrospective projects assessing lessons learned from military drawdown processes and the resulting security landscape. 

Projects: 

The Military Withdrawals Portfolio was created and is led by Caroline Rose

Military Withdrawals Initiatives

The Iraq-Syria Withdrawal Project

As the U.S. seeks to draw down its presence in the Middle East, particularly amid regional escalation, there is a greater likelihood for the withdrawal of U.S. troops and termination of the Counter-ISIS Operation Inherent Resolve Mission in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. has laid out an incremental reconsolidation and drawdown process for its near-2,500 forces stationed in Iraq, it has no clear plan for its 2,000 forces stationed in Northeast Syria. Among the many unknowns include questions of how will partner force capacity be affected by the removal of American intelligence provision, air cover, and assistance? How can the U.S. facilitate a drawdown in Iraq and Syria that does not repeat the same mistakes made during the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal process? How can Washington protect its partners and communities on the ground from malign and adversarial actors while executing its departure, ensuring local stability and human security? The Iraq-Syria Withdrawal Project seeks to answer these questions through thought leadership and expertise, generating analyses about the spectrum of risks and opportunities that exist within a draw-down process under Operation Inherent Resolve. Drawing from an array of experts who have extensive experience in navigating Iraq and Syria’s complex security landscapes, this project generates reports, articles, podcasts, and events illuminating pathways that American policymakers and military leaders can seize upon to ensure a responsible way forward for the U.S.’ forward posture in Iraq and Syria. The Iraq-Syria Withdrawal Project was created and is led by Caroline Rose and is part of the Military Withdrawals Portfolio.

The Post-Withdrawal Afghanistan Project

There are many lessons to be learned from the U.S. withdrawal of military forces that concluded 20 years of U.S. presence in Afghanistan. The swift evacuation process contributed to the deaths of 13 American servicemembers and hundreds of Afghan civilians. Ultimately, the withdrawal unintentionally played a role in shaping a power vacuum that Taliban insurgents, along with terrorist actors such as the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K), exploited to sow seeds of insecurity.  While Washington’s attention has largely shifted away from Afghanistan, it’s vital to draw lessons from both the execution and long-standing implications of the withdrawal. Particularly as the U.S. considers pulling its presence in the Middle East, it’s important to comparatively assess the lessons learned, indirect costs, and current state of play within Afghanistan’s post-withdrawal security landscape. Ultimately, how can the U.S. avert the same mistakes it made during its Afghanistan withdrawal process?  The Post-Withdrawal Afghanistan Project seeks to answer this question by fostering thought leadership and expertise, generating analyses about the different tactical, operational, and strategic elements that played a role in the U.S.’ withdrawal process, as well as the existing reality in a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Drawing from an array of experts who have extensive experience navigating the withdrawal and post-withdrawal process in Afghanistan, this project generates reports, articles, podcasts, and events about lessons learned and a future policy approach. The Post-Withdrawal Afghanistan Project was created and is led by Caroline Rose and is part of the Military Withdrawals Portfolio.
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The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy publishes work that combines geopolitical insight with subject-matter expertise. New Lines Institute publications examine tactical developments involving regimes, nonstate actors, local politics, ideologies, etc. Our work situates them in the strategic context of macro-level factors such as geography, populations, economics, military power, history, and culture. All our content must demonstrate analytical empathy and is geared toward advancing the cause of human security and stabilization and development on our planet. That said, we do not publish “op-ed” pieces, polemical content, or activist/advocacy work.

We welcome contributions from diverse experts with various sub-specialties to ensure that we consistently produce the highest-quality product. Our team firmly believes that expertise exists across the political spectrum and disciplinary fields; the key is to help our authors showcase it without indulging in partisan discussions. We expect our authors to focus on the how, why and (most importantly) the what next because our audience is already very familiar with the who, what, where, and when of the subjects we tackle.

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